Estimating Roche Shipments

How can we get some bounds on how many instruments Roche might ship in the first year?

Historical Analysis

I think we need some data points. Let’s look at some historical numbers:

• Ion Torrent PGM. Maybe 500 units in first year?¹

• NovaSeq X shipped 352 in its first year.

• HiSeq X booked 210 orders in first year.

• Ultima Genomics have shipped an estimated ~20 instruments.

• The HiSeq 2000 booked 200+ orders in it’s first year including:

  • 51 to the Broad.

  • 128 to BGI.

Here’s what I think: